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Of Renewed Hope and Advancements: a look at the technological advancements of the previous year and things to comeDirectron Scholarship 2008 Essay No. 91
by Howard Yee
Current School: Junior at The Cooper Union
Though invisible to most, 2008 hosted an influx of achievements, unforeseen in any other year before it. The Intel i7 core processor, the Intel Atom processor, Apple's -iPhone 3G, N-trig's capacitive multi-touch/stylus panel, the unibody Macbooks, Kindle (1 and 2), Palm Pre, DDR3 ram, wireless charging, to name a few, redefine both lifestyle and culture of the 21st century. This paper serves to reflect upon those advancements and the hopes of things to come.
Software - the year of the i
Software is the silent partner to the electronic devices which people use daily. Typically, people take software advancements for granted. Either it works or it doesn't, and if it looks nice, even better. Though the design aspects behind Web 2.0 weren't introduced in 2008, 2008 has seen a lot of changes in software and services with improved graphical interfaces. The improvement of GUI's results in improved user experience which ultimately increases the "worth of exchange" in products and services. This guarantees a large fanbase which actively helps improve the quality of service.
Cloud computing has become ever more prevalent. With the improvements in portable computing as well as Wireless Wide Area Networking, constant accessibility to information is possible. As WWAN based communication gets faster and faster, it may be possible for one to access all types of applications remotely, allowing for applications which require greater processing power to be utilized off-site.
Google has retired their older personalized Google format and replaced it with a revamped iGoogle (released in October of 2008). With the wide adoption of Google services like their search engine and Gmail, personalization was the next obvious step. Along with their new iGoogle format, Google has released extremely useful updates and add-ons to their other services such as video chat, multiple inboxes, Gmail themes, etc. The addition of these features improves end-user experience, guaranteeing the survival of Google. Because of this, other software producers feel confident in using Google's API to interface with Google services. One example is the new MindManager 8 application, which allows for integration with Gmail, Google Docs, Google Presentations, Google Spreadsheets, and Google Reader. Google services as well as applications like MindManager moves us one step closer to ideal cloud computing, where local based software can successfully and confidently reference and utilize applications served over the web.
The Apple iPhone's OS is the epitome of the design aspects mentioned above. With 3G not only can one access their email or websites wirelessly, one can also download applications wirelessly. The library of applications makes the iPhone more than just a smart phone, it has become an extension of the user (one can look up directions on Google Maps, find restaurants, query the name of a song via sound sampling, learn Japanese, even tune their guitar!). A lot of this is possible because of their library base. Their SDK (software development kit) is well documented and easy to use, which allows not only Apple programmers, but 3rd party developers to develop useful applications for the iPhone. Now, there's even talk about Adobe and Apple working together to get Flash operational on it.
Other software of note is Palm Pre's OS and the Android OS. Palm Pre's Webkit UI allows for developers to easily develop applications, since the language would be Javascript. The only limitations come from accessibility of hardware information, which hopefully, Palm will support. Google's Android OS also focuses on user experience, as one can see from the commercials for T-Mobile G1. Since the Android is open-source, anyone can develop applications for it. Arguments for whether the Android OS or iPhone OS is better is left for another discussion. Both open-source and limited development has their pros and cons.
Other improvements come from the upcoming Windows 7 OS. Windows 7 is a lot like Vista, but with improved code. It's programmed to play nice with multiple cores; and their 64bit version plays nicely with increasing ram capacity. However, not only that, it is also meant to play nice with mobile computers, as well as older, out-dated components. Performance is comparable to Windows XP for slower computers, unlike Vista. The focus for slower/mobile computers is the improved user-experience via a revamped GUI. Windows 7 will be a tough contender for the already popular OSX, with improved handwriting recognition, revamped Aero functionality, completely redesigned task bar, Aero Peek feature, and maintaining a fullscreen/maximize window functionality.
Hardware
Hardware is definitively the backbone of electronic devices. Whereas software provides great user-experience, hardware ensures that the software is running, and running well. There are two types of hardware improvement: speed and energy consumption, both of which improve productivity.
Intel i7 and DDR3 improve the speed of computer systems. The i7 processor allows for an innumerable number of cores with overclocking capability; and DDR3's capacity also approaches innumberability (Samsung has developed 4gb DRAM chips for a total of 32gb on a DDR3 ram, allowing for a total of 96gb when installed on a triple-channel motherboard). When mass production costs for these components decrease, everyone would be able to afford extremely fast home and even laptop computers. (Utilization of improved ram and cpu capabilities relies heavily on programmers; current and new software must be programmed to work efficiently with multiple cores and improved memory capacity as mentioned above.)
The Intel Atom processor as well as Nvidia's Ion platform, on the other hand, improves productivity via energy consumption and portability. The Atom processor is on par with its predecessor: the Intel Pentium M. However, it consumes significantly less energy in comparison, and multiple cores can be strung together (Asus' eeePC has a battery life of 7 hours in comparison to an older laptop of similar specs which lasts only 3 hours on average). Also, it is extremely small, making it perfect for mobile applications (which is why 'netbooks', 'umpcs', and 'mids' use it). The Ion compensates what Atom lacks. For years, low-end laptops use Intel's integrated graphics for graphic processing. Anyone who has used one of these laptops knows that they lack visual power, making watching videos and playing games hard. The Ion provides an HD capable processor in a small package. Not only that, the North Bridge and South Bridge chips are integrated into the package, thus reducing the footprint even more.
N-trig's capacitive touch digitizers as well as Apple's capacitive touch sensor used in their iPhones and iPod touches also improve in user-experience. Though, not a new concept, capacitive touch required a successful company to support the concept before it became popular. N-trig's sensor allows for multiple touch inputs as well as a pen input. With multi-touch gestures being widely used with Apple products, it is my hope that more and more people see computing devices as expansive in functionality rather than restrictive (in the past, the need to drag a mouse or a touch screen's ability to register only a single touch was restrictive in the number of choices a person had in order to interact with the computer).
The mention of restriction in terms of interactions between human and computer leads us to other concepts of restriction in the computing world: power/energy and communication. Let's focus on energy. One issue people had to deal with when purchasing a laptop was that they needed to decide between speed and power. Either the laptop was a power house and it lasts only 1.5 hours, or it can't play games or movies well, but can last 4 hours. Apple's new unibody Macbooks employ a series of hardware and software tweaks to improve battery performance. Their Macbooks will last about 8 hours on average, yet speed is not compromised (the Macbooks have Nvidia's 9400M GPU's installed as well as Intel Core 2 Duo CPU's). Another type of device announced, in attempts to combat battery life, is wireless docking/charging stations. Wireless charging stations prevent cable clutter, and improve charging experience (users do not have to deal with frayed wires or difficulty plugging in the cables). Wireless charging bays are commercially available for Xbox 360 wireless controllers.
As for communication, more and more mobile computers have some sort of wireless modem installed. This is because more and more people expect to be able to connect to the internet wirelessly almost anywhere they go. The Amazon Kindle (either 1 or 2) is a good example of this feature in action. Though, not used all the time, Whispernet (which is free) is a good feature to have on the Kindle. It is advantageous for users to be able to retrieve RSS feeds or article updates wirelessly through their mobile device. For cloud-computing to be fully realized, WWAN needs to be either free, or it's cost must be seriously reduced. Also, any capping on data transfer sizes per month for WWAN services must also be removed. Like the restrictiveness of interfaces, the ability to access information from anywhere must also be non-restrictive.
Of things to come...
Of processors and ram, Windows 7 has yet to be released. Not all up-to-date software utilizes multiple cores or even increased ram capacity well. With Intel's new i7 architecture, it is hoped that programmers slowly alter coding practices to incorporate multiple cores (threading, etc). Also, although the i7 is "overclockable", better cooling technology must be present in order to push the CPU to its limits.
Of mobile processors, better North Bridge and South Bridge chipsets are needed. A large issue with battery life of supposedly low power Atom processors is that almost all other components on the motherboard aren't low power either. The two most prevalent chips are the NB and SB chips. Most netbooks won't net better than 7 hours because of those two chips. Although the Nvidia Ion reduces the footprint of a mobile computer's mother board, it does not use low powered devices.
Of interactive peripherals, it is advantageous to have interactivity more than just multiple touch points. N-trig's digitizer lacks an eraser. It is also questionable whether their digitizer can handle more than two touch points. Apple's capacitive sensor only handles up to five touch events. Sharp has demoed, in the past two years, an LCD that scans as well as displays. Though its scanning refresh rate is 1 frame per second, an improvement in speed would result in the ultimate interactive peripheral, replacing the scanner, touch sensor, and biometric security device. Also, even though typing on a virtual keyboard on a screen isn't the same as a physical keyboard, it is hoped that certain developments in technology will overcome that awkwardness. The Blackberry Storm attempts to mimic keyboard clicks. A research lab recently demoed an ultrasonic sound based emitter that produces force feedback in midair.
Of battery capacity and wireless charging, Apple has made improvements in battery monitoring but newer battery technology is desirable. Also, the range of wireless charging should be increased. A research lab in California has recently announced that they have found a novel way of producing silicon based anodes for lithium based batteries. What this means is that current lithium based batteries can dectuple (10x) current battery capacities (moderately powerful laptops can last as long as 24 hours). MIT's evanescent wave-based wireless energy transmission research aims to provide wireless energy to a space as large as a classroom. A whole building may have one transmitter installed in each room, allowing inhabitants in a building to receive energy wirelessly. If these devices are installed in a manner similar to cell towers, people may not need to rely on improved battery technology to use their electronic devices. Batteries would be viewed as backup batteries rather than main power sources.
Of wireless communication, although Wireless Wide Area Network schemes are improving, they will always lag behind wired communication. It is impossible to win against the speed of light (fiber optics). Also, with current communication schemes as they are now, humans are completely reliant on unstable systems. Cell towers go down. They can also be overloaded. Satellite based communication can fail any moment, like the recent crash between the Iridium Satellite and the Russian Satellite. Wires decay and break, and most DSL, cable, fiber optic lines are underground, making them hard to replace. Although, currently, this is in the realm of science fiction, electron or subatomic particle entanglement can lead to propagation time of 0 seconds, making communication not only wireless, but instantaneous. Physicists are already working on trying to detect and manipulate electron spin of entangled particles. If they are successful in doing so, and doing it cheaply, one can see quantum computers and instantaneous communication in the near future.
One can see that 2008 has been an interesting year, opening up all sorts of possibilities for 2009. It is my hope that humanity carries on at full force, improving technology for all sorts of applications. We should not be limited to what we see at the horizon, but try to imagine what is beyond it. We should take the tools we have now and wonder how we can improve them tenfold.
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