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Hurricane Rita Blog / Watch (10)

Michael

Posted 09/25/05 12:14

Jacob and I got to the office around 10am on Sunday morning.

Jacob tried to direct me over the phone yesterday afternoon to restart some computers for our back-end management systems so that we can print and process orders for Monday. I had trouble getting that done. So I asked him to come in today.

Well, he got it done in 15 minutes. That tells you he IS the network administrator and I am NOT!

We both were happy to see so many orders through the last four days. Those Jacob was holding were print-outs for just the first 10 minutes! As the printer was spitting out more.

We sent an email notice to those orders whose shipment has been delayed due to Rita. We offered a discount as a token of our appreciation and the delay.

By the time I got to the office Pete and his dogs already left. I assume that he will not stay here tonight. I hope he had a good night of sleep on the company sofa.

Kevin in Japan

Posted 09/25/05 14:20

So, safe from japan, just had a typhoon pass well east of us, let us know how it went from the last post.

Michael

Posted 09/25/05 14:39

After getting the existing orders printed and the auto-print feature turned on, Jacob left to buy some milk for his baby.

Later Nancy, our customer service manager (left), and Hong, our retail sales manager showed up. They are now processing the orders to get them ready for warehouse to pick, QC, pack, and ship.

Some warehouse crew will be here shortly to start pulling orders.

Nancy and her family came back from her evacuation to Austin yesterday. By coming to work today after such a tiring trip, she has really shown her dedication to our customers.

We'll share some of Nancy and other evacuee's evacuation stories later!

Michael

Posted 09/25/05 14:45

Lessons Learned From Rita

It�s not too early to accumulate some thoughts about Rita as a reference for future.

We know hurricanes allot more now

Texas is not Florida. We don�t have major hurricanes that often. So most residents in Houston do not know that much about hurricanes. We lived in Houston for 15 years. This may be the first time we had experienced such a major hurricane. So one thing Rita taught us is a great deal of knowledge about hurricanes in general.

The prediction of landfall point for hurricanes is still highly unreliable. The projected landfall point for Rita shifted about 400 miles during the 48 hour period. Houston was on the bad side of the hurricane in the beginning, shifted to the center of the storm, and then to the good side at the end. Therefore, tracking the shift of the storm is very important.

The accuracy of the landfall prediction becomes more accurate over time. Therefore, the timing of one�s decision is very important. Do not make decisions too early or too late.

However, the timing of the landfall was predicted very precisely. On Wednesday, the prediction was for Rita to land somewhere in Texas at 6am on Saturday. Rita actually landed at around 4am! That is amazingly accurate.Therefore, we often have plenty enough time to track the storm until the landfall prediction becomes accurate.

The shift of the predicted landfall point has been almost in one direction the whole time � from west Texas coast to the east. If one has to evacuate, they should consider evacuate in the opposite direction of this shift. In other words, people should have tried to go to Corpus Christy or San Antonio direction instead of the Lake Charles direction where Rita eventually hit.

Hurricanes are highly directional. How it may damage your house, properties, or community will depend on your relative directions to the storm. The right side of the storm is the bad/dirty side of it with strong wind and large water surge. The left side is the good/clean side with much slower wind and little water surge. The direction of the wind depends on the location of the storm. Boarding on one side of the building that faces away from the storm may not be necessary � if one can know the direction of the storm at the time of boarding.

The wind speed may fall exponentially as a function of the distance a hurricane travels on land after the landfall. Therefore, the 50-mile or so distance the majority of Houston areas have from the coast line makes a huge difference. Houston overtook Galveston as the largest city of Texas for a good reason � Houston has never been hit and damaged by a hurricane as Galveston once did.

It is very rare for a Category 5 hurricane to form and sustain for an extended period of time. It requires almost perfect condition. Most hurricanes get down graded somewhat during landfall. That is why it is extremely rare for a Category 5 hurricane to make a landfall. A Category 5 hurricane in the middle of Gulf of Mexico may not actually make landfall or impact as a Category 5.

Hurricanes in Golf of Mexico may be different from those in Florida. Hurricanes in Golf of Mexico may have longer travel distance and time, allowing more time for people to track and prepare than those in Florida.

Houston is not New Orleans. Houston is not below sea level and does not have levees. What happened in New Orleans may not happen in Houston or vice versa.

Then again, we should not over-analyze one hurricane. Each hurricane may be different. What we learned from Rita may not all be applicable to future ones. So, use common-sense and trust science.

As a light-hearted note, what would people in California do if science develops one day to a level that scientists can track and predict an earthquake 48 hours ahead of time? That certainly will cause allot of nightmare scenes there!

From personal/family perspective

Most people we know in Houston area who evacuated wanted to evacuate on Wednesday. I made the decision to wait on what to do until Thursday noon when the prediction of the landfall point is more accurate. The landfall point was clearly shifting even on Wednesday night. I convinced my family to stay. However, it was not a decision without a struggle. Second thoughts have gone through my minds several times until Thursday morning. We played a little golf on Thursday afternoon and swam in our swimming pool on Friday.

It turns out we had very little wind or rain in Sugar Land area on Friday night or Saturday morning. We never experienced any interruption to our electricity or Internet access services.

Nevertheless, here are a few lessons we learned:

Take time to track the storm. Pay attention to the direction of the shift in the projected landfall point.

Do not panic. Stay calm. Use common sense. Trust science. Be rational.

Prepare these items before they run out: water, food, and GAS.

Buy plywood boards early. Perhaps pre-make the boards to fit the windows; mark each piece with a number and keep them in a storage for future usage; to avoid damage to window frame, press the boards to fit inside the window without nails. (But, we have lived in Houston for 15 years; this is the first time we even thought we need to board the windows)

Get the house ready: collect IDs and important documents and make them water-proof, move valuable furniture and other items away from windows, have a plan in case window breaks and rain comes in.

From an e-commerce company�s perspective

A few employees left early on Wednesday. We decided to close the business on Thursday and Friday to allow employees time to do what they decide to do. We were able to get the whole office/warehouse prepared within Wednesday, such as backing up all servers, powering down all systems, covering all equipment and stocks, park all vehicles inside the warehouse, patch the roof, boarding the front door and windows. I did go in to work and make additional preparations on Thursday and Friday.

In retrospect, we should have realized that our office building can be a solid shelter place because of the steel/concrete structure and let all employees know that our building would be an option for them to stay if they decide not to leave town and Rita continues its direction to Houston.

We should have distributed an emergency contact list for all employees so that employees can call each other to let others know their whereabouts and if anyone needs help.

Somehow we turned off both the fax server and the backup fax machine on Wednesday. As a result, we missed all the incoming faxes on Thursday and Friday. We should have left both on. Electricity, Internet access, and email services were not interrupted in our office at West Houston throughout the ordeal.

Boarding the front door from the outside to prevent the glass being broken by the storm or other bad elements. Someone kicked and broke one of our front glass doors on Thursday night � one day before Hurricane Rita landed.

In addition to the plan to shut everything down, we should have also had a plan to get everything restarted once the storm passes. We should have asked the key technical staff to evacuate to different locations as a precaution to ensure that at least one of them would be able to return quickly after the storm passes (much like the President and Vice President of United States should rarely stay together).

I decided to create this blog as a way to keep our employees, relatives, friends, vendors, and others informed of what we were going through. I had people all the way from China, Australia, Taiwan, Germany, Japan, not counting those from California, New Jersey, etc., calling or messaging me about our safety. I referred them to this blog for more information. It surely has helped ease their anxieties, especially considering the time difference we have. Cell phones, digital camera, video recorders, Internet, and other high tech gadgets are all being used fully during this storm.

From the city and public perspective

Overall the city did a good job evacuating 2-3 million people within 48 hours. No city has done that in human history. If Rita directly hit Houston, there would have been a significant less human loss as a result of the effective evacuation. However, that said, the entire process did expose some weakness of Houston�s hurricane preparation plans.

First and foremost, evacuation should have been done in phases. Ask the coastal regions to evacuate first. Ask people in other regions not to leave until further notice.

Do not over stir public fear with catch-phrases like �Better safe than sorry� and �Properties can be rebuilt human lives cannot.� Risk is highly regional. Some regions have higher risks than the others. It does not make sense for the entire city to evacuate all at the same time when the hurricane is still 48 or 60 hours away and the city�s north side is about 40 miles away from the south side.

Evacuation should be done in a systematic and orderly fashion with those with the highest risks to evacuate first. Well, sometimes, that is easier said than done. With more organization and studies, it can be done though.

To avoid traffic gridlock, make several routes available instead of only major highways. Almost none of the side roads and local streets were jammed during the traffic peak of Rita on Thursday.

Major free ways should be re-designed to allow easy and quick conversion to counter-flow. I never liked the fact that the HOV lanes in Houston are barricaded. I read a long time ago that Houston�s is the only one that does that in the country for a major city.

If it is possible, ask residents, community centers, churches, schools, and public buildings on the side of the evacuation routes to take evacuees in. The reason many people tried to go quite north like Dallas and Austin was because there isn�t a place for them to stay between these destination and Houston that were open to them. If most of these people can be dispersed along I-45, 290, and 59, they do not have to travel that far, which should also help the traffic.

Have authorities to direct companies to divert gas supplies from other cities. However, gas companies and distribution business are all controlled by private companies. How much clout city/state/county officials have on such private companies is questionable.

Michael

Posted 09/25/05 17:21

By 5pm today, special warehouse crew has pulled all these orders getting them ready for QC and packing, which should help reducing the "congestion" on Monday.

PriceComarison.com

Posted 09/25/05 19:55

Michael,

This is an amazing commentary about our experience in Houston. I was actualy following your posting and looking at your pictures of the surrounding areas.

Of course I am glad the hurricane turned east. I guess your gamble is good.

By the way, there was no more boards at Home Depot and they closed early at 12pm that day anyhow. Not having boards actualy some you time! I have spent 2 days boarding every windows at my parent's house and mine. Now I have to reverse that process and be left with about 20+ plywoods!

The joy of hurricane experience.

Andrew

www.PriceComparison.com

bob

Posted 09/25/05 22:27

hey guys.

good to know nothing much happens. i've been reading ur post, and it's good to know nothing much happens.

cheers !

[VH]Diceman

Posted 09/25/05 23:40

Congrats Michael on making it thru virtually untouched. I was very impressed on your preparedness leading up to the storm. Others could certainly follow your example.

Once again, welcome back aboard to the land of the "functional"!

David M. aka "DiceMan" Editor-in-Chief www.virtual-hideout.net

mishy

Posted 09/25/05 23:52

hello

these are pictures I shot from my backyard. I'm Michael's daughter, btw. ^_^

Michael

Posted 09/26/05 00:04

Mishy meant she took those pictures on Rita day - Friday, Sept. 23. Thank you for posting them. Great pictures! Our Rita story is not complete without the images of what could happen to us if Rita hit us directly or if west Houston is on the bad side of Rita.

We would have major flooding...

Michael

Posted 09/26/05 00:05

Houses will be blown away...

Michael

Posted 09/26/05 00:06

even 18-wheeler will be on its side...

Michael

Posted 09/26/05 00:07

walls may fall...

Michael

Posted 09/26/05 00:08

so does telephone posts... hitting the unfortunate cars...

Michael

Posted 09/26/05 00:09

we may have to wade in water on the street... collecting our belongings

Michael

Posted 09/26/05 00:10

we may even have fires right in the middle of the storm...

Michael

Posted 09/26/05 00:16

These are images of what may have happened to west Houston if Rita hit us on its bad side...

Wait a minute. These are real Rita images! They are from Galveston, Beaumont, Orange, Port Authur, and Lake Charles! (Source: Houston Chronicle).

These would have happened to us if Rita didn't shift its target.

Those who did suffer through the evacuation process would feel much better if they have seen these pictures - what might have happened to them and what they would have escaped from.

What a contrast to Mishy's pictures. We are totally blessed. Our hearts go out to those people and places where Rita hit hard. We wish them a speedy recovery.

Albert in Taiwan

Posted 09/26/05 01:11

It is time to pick up the pieces and move on to the next challenge.

Michael

Posted 09/26/05 09:44

Glass repair guy showed up this morning at around 9:10am. He replaced the door glass in 15 minutes. Cost? $160. Not bad for such a responsive, emergency repair. Our front door now looks normal.

Michael

Posted 09/26/05 09:45

We are now back in business! Actually several of our coworkers came in early at 8am to process all the orders backed up during Rita.

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